From 14 to 15
by Ben Darwin | 26 January 2010 (09:22)
As we approach the 5th and final season of Super 14 as we know it, let’s have a look at how this competition will be structured in the future.
First of all the competition will be 15 teams and lengthened to 16 rounds
The new arrangement is based upon the original ARU proposal for three national divisions, whereby each side will play the other four teams from their own country twice and all of the other teams once, with a six-team final series. This is very similar to what already exists in the NFL, where the top team from each of the 8 divisions, plus 2 "wild card” teams go through to the finals. In the case of the Super 15, the top team from each of the three divisions and the next three highest point scorers (whether they are all from different countries or the same) will go through. Interestingly enough, the NFL competition is also 16 weeks in length.
However, there were two major compromises that - while somewhat complicating the model - are designed to accommodate the wishes of all 3 countries. Firstly, each team will only play 4 of the 5 teams in each of the other 2 national divisions, meaning 16 regular season games for each team. My feeling is that is somewhat of a necessary evil as long as the rankings are done correctly. It will hurt some teams that would, for example, bank on playing the Crusaders at their home ground every 2 years – and the revenue that would come with this match. Each year, under this format, there will be one Australian and one South African side that will not play the Crusaders.
This 'trimming' of the model would allow for a late February start (somewhat placating the ARU and NZRU who wanted a March start), a 3 week gap for the June test matches (favored by the SARU) and an early August finish, so as not to overlap with the new streamlined versions of New Zealand’s and South Africa's domestic competitions. This is quite a sound model as the increasingly busy November window left an incredibly short turnaround for the test players –– although jumping in and out of test football will take some getting used to.
Extending the season can only help with Australian rugby, where currently there is no national or provincial championship.
Secondly, the 3 division winners and the next 3 best performed of the remaining teams would qualify for a three week finals series, with ladder ranking deciding the match-ups. This system would be a hybrid of the conference-based qualification system favored by the SARU and the 'top six' model favored by the ARU and NZRU.
Having a more teams in the finals will hold the collective gaze of the masses a little longer. The longer season allows teams to turn a season around. As it stands now, a bad start for a Super 14 team and the season is over.
So what will be enough for teams to win the competition? With the similarity that exists between the teams, I think it will play out like this.
South African teams will play 12 games out of their 16 in South Africa, meaning a 4-week tour of the antipodes. As a percentage of their year, this will now be 25%. Previously a 4 or 5 week tour of NZ and Australia was between 28 and 35%. This new touring model will not do as much damage to for the South African sides.
To qualify top of your own division, a side would need to win at least 6 of the 8 games within their own division. In the 8 games outside of their own division winning 4 or 5 would lead to a total 10 or 11 wins, with the average of 8 bonus points leading to 48 to 52 points. Interestingly last year the most bonus points went to the teams placed 9th, 8th, 11th and 12th.
Anything over 50 points, which is 10 or 11 wins, would place you into the finals. In my mind there will certainly be teams that will have more points than other division winners.
It’s not a perfect system but a far more interesting one that has worked for American sports including the NFL, MLB and the NBA. It limits costs (i.e. transport), which is probably the main driver, holds interest and allows for easy expansion as you could add, or even drop, a side without changing the structure too much.
In any event, I am looking forward to the Super 15 and to working out the permutations that the new format will bring with it.
